AUDUSD moves higher as commodities/yields rise

  • 10 year yield is up from 2.01% low on March 1 to 2.546% currently

Greg Michalowski

The AUDUSD is moving higher as commodities move higher and so do benchmark yields.

The price of crude oil is continuing to step higher with the April contract up at $107.70. Gold is up around $6.50. Silver is up $0.17 on the day.

In the Australian debt market the benchmark 10 year yield has moved from 2.01% on March 1 to 2.55% currently. The yield at the end of year was at 1.67% (up 88 basis points). in contrast, the US 10 year yield is currently at 2.155% and up from 1.52% at the end of the year (up 66 basis points for the year).

The high yield in Australia last week reached 2.585% which was the highest since December 2018. The 10 year yield is now above the 50% of the move down from the 2013 high. That midpoint comes in at 2.499% (call it 2.50% – see chart below).

The move higher has helped to support the AUDUSD.

Australia 10 year yield

Looking at the hourly chart of the  AUDUSD , the pair has moved above the high from Friday at 0.7417. The high price just reached 0.7424. The next target comes in against swing highs going back to March 7 at 0.74293, and above that 0.74405. Those highs were the highest level since October 5, 2021. Getting above those levels would open the door for further upside momentum.

What would hurt the bullish bias?

The close support comes near 0.73925. That level was the swing high from Thursday’s trade. On Friday the Asian session high stalled near that level and the price traded above and below it during the London session. In the North American session the price move back above that level and stayed above that level. The low today also was able to hold support near the 0.73925 (see red circles).

Move below that level, and there is a swing area between 0.73675 and 0.73799 that if broken to the downside would also ruin the bullish bias (see yellow area and green numbered circles).

AUDUSD moves toward March high

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