A huge decifciency and a prolonged break in rainfall in the southern peninsula and central India regions this month is likely to impact the yield of several crops, including oilseeds, pulses and paddy, officials said.
If the rainfall does not revive in the next one week, the standing crops are likely to witness huge moisture stress and rainfall in the later part of next month may not be of much help, according to officials of the agriculture ministry, who are currently assessing the situation. Precipitation in the next one week to 10 days would be crucial for standing crops.
“After widespread rainfall in July, which gave a boost to sowing, the scanty rainfall this month would impact the yield of standing crops,” DN Pathak, executive director, Soybean Processors Association of India, told FE.
The overall deficit in rainfall this month, against the benchmark-long period average, was recorded at 32% on Wednesday, with the southern peninsula and central India regions having received 62% and 42% less rainfall respectively.
According to the Met department, overall monsoon rains have been ‘below normal’, at 9% below the benchmark till Wednesday. With the exception of northwest India, where precipitation so far is 4% above the benchmark, the remaining regions recorded a rain deficit: central India (-10%), eastern and northeast (-16%) and south peninsula (-17%).
Pathak said that rains in key soybean-growing states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, have been hugely deficient this month. Soybean this season has been sown on 12.47 million hectare (MH) of land, which is marginally higher than the area the crop was sown on in 2022.
The groundnut crop in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka is likely to be impacted because of prolonged breaks in monsoon rains so far, according to state government officials. This year, the area on which groundnut has been sown is slightly less (by 4.32 MH) as compared to last year.
A lesser yield of oilseeds would lead to higher import of edible oil this year, as the country imports about 56% of its annual edible oil consumption.
Although kharif sowing has been largely completed, and the area covered thus far is marginally above the year-ago level, the current dry spell could hit these crop yields too. Pulses and oilseeds are considered more vulnerable to the rain deficit, as these crops are approaching the flowering stage.
Paddy transplanting is largely complete and, at present, up 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Scanty rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana may not really impact the crop because of large irrigation coverage, according to a scientist from a Hyderabad-based institute affiliated to the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR).
Meanwhile, Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said that several forecasting models have suggested a revival of monsoon for at least 10 days, starting September 4, which is expected to bring in above-normal rains in Kerala, Karnataka coast and eastern parts of central India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday has predicted heavy rainfall over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and northern parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on September 2. “Isolated heavy rainfall activity is likely over extreme south peninsula India during the next 3-4 days,” according to an IMD statement, which added that “subdued” rainfall activity is likely over the rest of the country in the next five days.
Source:financialexpress.com