The overall rainfall this season, however, is likely to be ‘below normal’ at 92% of the normal range.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday predicted a ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall for September in the range of 91-109% of the benchmark — long period average (LPA) — after the driest August since 1901.
The overall rainfall this season, however, is likely to be ‘below normal’ at 92% of the normal range.
This year’s monsoon rains (June-September) is likely to be the weakest since 2015, when rainfall was 86% of the LPA. In 2018, the precipitation was 91% of the LPA.
Kharif crops sowing has largely been completed, and the area covered is marginally above the year-ago level, mainly attributed to surplus rainfall of 113% of the LPA in July, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general at the IMD, said. Rain in August which accounts for around 30% of the precipitation during the monsoon season was hugely deficient at only 74% of the LPA.
According to agriculture ministry officials, the current dry spell could hit crop yields, especially in pulses and oilseeds, which are more vulnerable to the rain deficit. These crops are approaching the flowering stage.
Worryingly, as on Thursday, water levels in 146 key reservoirs had fallen 23% below the last year’s levels and 9% below the average of the last 10 years. This was primarily because of the sharp fall in water levels in the southern region.
The met department in its forecast for the next month has stated that ‘normal to above normal’ rainfall is most likely over many areas of northeast India, east India, some areas of east-central and south peninsular India and foothills of the Himalayas. It has predicted ‘below-normal’ rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country.
“August rainfall was hugely impacted by El Nino conditions prevailing over the Pacific Ocean while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which helps the monsoon, has just turned positive, thus unlikely to counter the El Nino conditions,” Mohapatra said. He said that a moderate El Nino condition is likely to persist till the early part of next year.
According to the met department, until Thursday, the overall monsoon rains have been at 90% of the LPA. With the exception of the northwest India, where precipitation so far is 3% above the benchmark, rains have been deficient in the rest of the regions — central India (-10%), east and northeast (-17%) and south peninsula (-17%).
In April, IMD had said it expected rainfall in June-September to be in the ‘normal’ range at 96% of LPA.
Mohapatra said the met department would not be revising its April forecast as it has an error range of +/- 4% of LPA. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet had said precipitation this year could be ‘below normal’ at 94% of the LPA. As of now, 58% of the 717 districts in the country have received normal or excess rainfall. The remaining 300 districts have received deficient or scanty rainfall.
IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of the LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall received between 104% and 110% of the benchmark falls in the ‘above normal’ category while volume of rainfall above 110% of LPA is referred to as ‘excess’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres. India’s foodgrain production grew 5% year-on-year to a new record of 330.5 million tonne (MT) in the 2022-23 crop year. The target for 2023-24 is marginally higher at 332 MT.
While the rainfall has been uneven over the last few years, it did not have much of an impact on foodgrains production. For instance, in 2014, monsoon rains were 12% below normal but food grain output declined by just 5% to 252 MT. In 2018, monsoon rains were 9% below normal but the production of rice, wheat and pulses did not fall in the 2018-19 crop year.
Source:financialexpress.com