The advance of a miles-long armored convoy to within 17 miles of Kyiv on Monday, as well as heavy shelling of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv, may herald a new phase of the fighting after five days of stiff Ukrainian resistance.
The latest: Russian artillery struck a military base in Okhtyrka, a small city between Kharkiv and Kyiv, killing over 70 Ukrainian soldiers, wrote Dmytro Zhyvytskyy, the head of the region, on Telegram. The numbers could not immediately be verified.
The big picture: Peace talks ended with no sign of concessions. Russia’s economy is beginning to unravel and its military has suffered setbacks, but the advance on Kyiv continued. Military analysts expected the fighting to grow more intense and dangerous for civilians.
- Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia’s military at CNA, says Moscow’s plans of sprinting to Kyiv and forcing a swift surrender — ideally with limited Western sanctions or domestic blowback — have largely failed. He expected more artillery and air power.
- Ukrainian officials said dozens of civilians were killed when Russian forces bombarded residential areas of Kharkiv, a mostly Russian-speaking city near the border. The casualty numbers could not immediately be verified.
- The attacks took place as Russian and Ukrainian delegations were meeting near the Belarus-Ukraine border for peace talks.
- The Ukrainian side emerged from the talks with little optimism, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no flexibility thus far. He told French President Emmanuel Macron that Ukraine must disarm, proclaim its neutrality, and recognize Crimea as Russian, per state media.
Meanwhile, the military convoy, estimated to stretch over 40 miles, moved toward Kyiv from the north, according to satellite imagery from Maxar.
- A senior Pentagon official said Russia’s goal is to “encircle Kyiv from multiple locations” and to capture Kharkiv and the port city of Mariupol to isolate eastern Ukraine.
- Air raid sirens sounded in the capital again overnight.
What they’re saying: The State Department accused Russia on Monday of “widespread” human rights abuses: “Russia’s invasion has damaged and destroyed schools, hospitals, radio stations, and homes, killing and injuring civilians, including children.”
- More than 500,000 refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Moldova, the U.N. said.
Impact on Russia: Russia’s currency is collapsing due to unprecedented, crippling Western sanctions. Massive corporations have said they will stop operating in Russia.
- The Russian central bank raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20% and announced a raft of measures — including the suspension of stock trading on the Moscow Exchange — in a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding.
- The Biden administration announced Monday morning that Russia’s central bank will be prohibited from undertaking transactions in dollars under a new concerted effort by the U.S. and its allies that is set to accelerate Russia’s economic tailspin.
State of play: On the battlefield, Russian forces have claimed the most territory in the south.
- In Berdyansk, a town near Mariupol now under Russian control, residents shouted at occupying troops to go home and sang the Ukrainian national anthem in the main square.
- Elsewhere, civilians have attempted to block the advance of tanks with their bodies.
- Morale appears low among the Russian forces, who didn’t know until the last minute that they’d be ordered to invade a country they don’t see as an adversary, Kofman said.
Ukrainian officials have attempted to seize on the initiative, and the narrative.
- Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said any Russian soldier who voluntarily surrendered to Ukrainian captivity would receive 5 million rubles ($47,000).
- Meanwhile, in Monday’s emergency UN session, Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya read what he said were the last text messages sent from a confused and frightened Russian soldier to his mother minutes before he was killed.
- Zelensky accused Russian troops of slaughtering civilians in Kharkiv and requested a no-fly zone from NATO and the U.S. Both have ruled that out because it would bring them into a direct military conflict with Russia.
Yes, but: NATO countries continued to promise and provide hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of weaponry.
- Russia warned it would hold countries that provide such weaponry responsible if they’re used to attack Russian troops.
- As with Putin’s Sunday announcement that he would put Russia’s nuclear deterrent on alert, it was a vague but ominous indication that this war could intensify.
For the record: A senior U.S. defense official said Monday that Russia has deployed nearly 75% of its assembled combat power inside Ukraine but has failed to achieve air superiority and is struggling with logistical issues, like military vehicles running out of fuel.
What to watch: Russia still has a good deal of capabilities “on the sidelines,” including most of its air force, Kofman said. He’s expecting a new scale of warfare in the days to come.
What else is happening: Zelensky signed an application Monday for his country to join the EU, a day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine is “one of us and we want them in.”
- 16 Ukrainian children have been killed and 45 have been wounded during the war, while Russia has suffered 4,500 casualties, Zelensky claimed in his latest address. International monitors haven’t verified this.
- Zelensky said he’d allow prisoners with combat experience to be released to help defend Ukraine and “compensate their guilt.”
- Ukraine’s deputy defense minister claimed Ukraine has received “thousands” of requests from foreign volunteers to join a new “International Legion” to fight Russia.
- Russia closed its airspace to Germany, France, the U.K. and 33 other countries, after the EU froze out Russian aircraft on Monday.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated with details of the Okhtyrka attack.
Source: axios.com