Commodities News

Gold sees heightened volatility, supported by US CPI; trend neutral to negative, assume longs at Rs 58,000

Following the US inflation number, gold sees volatility, supported by a US consumer price index. The next support zone for MCX gold is Rs 58,000.

By Bhavik Patel

Gold and silver prices are steady in choppy, two-sided trading on Thursday following the US inflation number. The metals are supported by a U.S. consumer price index report that came in a bit tamer than market expectations. Gold had a tailwind on the back of weakness in the labour market as first-time unemployment benefits rose well beyond market expectations. 

The inflation data has not supplied any conclusive information on the direction of U.S. interest rates, hence gold is not responding much to it. The Federal Reserve can hold interest rates steady through the end of the year due to moderating inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve cannot afford to ease interest rates anytime soon as core inflation remains well over the 2% target. Markets see a less than 10% chance of a rate hike in September and a 30% chance of a rate hike in November.

Despite the low demand, total assets under management within gold ETFs increased by 2% month-on-month to $215bn as a rebound in the gold price more than offset negative flows. Despite recent outflows, year-to-date demand for North American gold ETFs remains positive at $567m. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported its ninth consecutive gold purchase in July, lifting its total gold reserves by 23t to 2,136t. We have seen outflows in Gold ETF in Europe but in North America and Asia, there is still net inflows year to date.

Technical Outlook

In MCX, gold price is trading neutral to negative as momentum oscillator RSI_14 is at 43. Rs 61,000 is proving to be strong resistance as gold has made double top around that level. Rs 58,000 is the next support zone and next week we might not see any major price action as most of the important data have been published this week. We expect the gold rate to trade in the range of Rs 58,000-59,700 next week with no clear direction. Any traders looking to take a long position in Gold should wait for a support zone around Rs 58,000.

(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Source:financialexpress.com

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