Mrutyunjay Mohapatra,Director General, India Meteorological Department, however, said there are several other parameters which could influence the monsoon.
Amid concerns over the absence of snowfall and rains over the hills this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the persisting El Nino conditions to turn ‘neutral’ prior to the start of monsoon season in June. Neutral El Nino conditions imply that it would not have an adverse impact on the monsoon rains next season.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra,Director General, India Meteorological Department, however, said there are several other parameters which could influence the monsoon. IMD will be releasing the first forecast for 2024 monsoon (June-September) in April. The next monsoon rains are crucial for Indian agriculture and more than 70% of the country’s annual precipitation is received during four months.
In 2023, the monsoon was not only the weakest in five years but was also marked by uneven distribution of rains across four months. Overall rainfall in June was 91% of benchmark long period average (LPA) followed by a hugely surplus rainfall in July at 113% of the benchmark.
In August, the rainfall was lowest since 1902 at only 64% of LPA , while September precipitation was surplus at 113% of normal benchmark. On the current cold wave conditions, Mohapatra said In this year we do not have significant western disturbances from December and January causing scantly rainfall in the region.
According to a study by IMD, long term trends from 1990 onwards indicated that total rainfall December – February showing a decreasing trend especially in the hills of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
On the lack of rainfall because of less number of western disturbances this season, Mohapatra said that although more of the norht-western regions have irrigation facilities to meet the need for standing crops like wheat, pulses and oilseeds, lack of snowfall does impact crops such as apples and tourism sector.
In the preliminary monsoon forecast guidance for 2024, private weather forecaster Skymet has stated that the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’. “This could be one of the decent normal monsoon years, making a sturdy start and finishing around the midway mark of normal range of 96-104% of LPA.
The Skymet stated that the impending cooling of the ocean waters may portend ‘neutral’ conditions before the arrival of the monsoon. Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet said , “ the monsoon disrupting weather pattern El Nino, which dragged monsoon 2023 to ‘below normal’ is expected to get softened.
Source:financialexpress.com