Crude oil demand is expected to witness strong growth, estimated to remain at 1-2.3 million barrels per day this year, ICICI Securities said in a report, citing recent updates from the OPEC and IEA.
Crude oil demand is expected to witness strong growth this year, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies from high realisation of at least $75 per barrel over FY 2024-25, according to a brokerage research report. The crude oil demand is estimated to remain at 1-2.3 million barrels per day this year, ICICI Securities said in the report, citing recent updates from the OPEC and IEA. Further, India’s OMCs (oil marketing companies) are also likely to see steadier GRMs (gross refining margins) and stronger marketing margins, on the back of a strong product demand.
IEA, OPEC hope for strong growth in world oil demand
The world oil demand estimates from the IEA and the OPEC suggest strong growth for CY23, despite near-term weakness in demand as reflected in crude price trends. The report suggests that global oil demand, which was 99.8 million bpd in CY22, is expected to grow to 102.3 million bpd in CY23 and 103.1 million bpd in CY24.
“Economic signals from China and the US (the second and largest consumers of oil, respectively) have shown weakness in demand in the first 4 months of CY23. However, some recovery is visible in Chinese demand since the last 2 months, and we believe US inventory replenishment is a strong driver for crude demand growth over H2FY24E. In addition, stronger growth in demand in other Asia-Pacific countries (India) and parts of Africa should lead to overall growth in CY23E oil demand,” said the ICICI report.
Oil supply uncertainty
Further, the apparent reduction in supply from the OPEC countries and the heightening reluctance from countries other than Saudi Arabia to take cuts may lead to uncertainty in the crude supply prospects, the report said. Moreover, the potential leverage of the restrictions on Venezuelan output and Brazilian efforts to magnify their production output may also contribute to this, whereas the revival of the Iran nuclear deal gives some hope to influence the supply estimates.
Crude prices are likely to rise over H2FY24
The global supply is expected to tighten, with nominal demand growth, and recovery in Chinese demand, resulting in a large supply deficit, crude prices are likely to rise over H2FY24. “We do not see the bearish environment sustaining crude prices for a longer period and would expect prices to revert to US$80–85/bbl levels by the end of FY24. We note futures prices indicate a much softer price environment vs. estimates, and hence, there could be some downside risk to our base case estimates of US$80–85/bbl for FY24/25E,” said the report.
Source:financialexpress.com