The IMD had predicted rainfall in the just concluded season at 96%, with an error range of +/-4%.
The monsoon season (June-September) this year ended with the country receiving rainfall moderately below the “normal” range, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. While 96-104% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) is considered normal, the precipitation was 94.4%.
The IMD had predicted rainfall in the just concluded season at 96%, with an error range of +/-4%. Rainfall from the annual phenomenon, which typically causes over 75% of the rainfall in the country this year, is the weakest since 2018, when rainfall was 91% of LPA.
The rainfall deficit could have an impact on the yield of kharif crops such as paddy, pulses and oilseeds, as eastern India, particularly Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of West Bengal saw rain deficiency in the range of 10-20% from LPA.
The deficit could have been higher unless positive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) countered the adverse effect of El Nino conditions.
In fact, kharif sowing has been a tad above the last year level at 110.7 million hectare, but scanty rainfall in August and uneven distribution could impact the yield in some regions, sources said. This may force the government to continue with curbs on exports of rice varieties and wheat and sugar in the coming months.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said the northeast monsoon, which brings rains in Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra, Rayalseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka from October-December, will be “normal” in the range of 88-112% of LPA.
There has been a huge variation in monthly rainfall over the country across four months with overall rainfall in June 91% of LPA followed by a hugely surplus rainfall in July at 113% of the benchmark.
In August, the rainfall was lowest since 1902 at only 64% of LPA , while in September, the rainfall was surplus at 113% of normal benchmark.
Overall, out of 717 districts 69% of them received normal or excess rainfall while the rest of 220-odd districts received deficient to scanty rainfall during monsoon season.
However, water levels in 146 key reservoirs had fallen 18% below the last year’s levels and 8% below the average of the last 10 years. This was primarily because of the sharp fall in water levels in the southern regions.
This season, the rainfall deficiency in the east and northeast and south peninsula was 18.5% and 8%, respectively. Northwest and central India have received 0.9% and 0.4% more rainfall than LPA, respectively, this season.
Rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall received between 104% and 110% of benchmark fall in the ‘above normal’ category while volume of rainfall above 110% of LPA is referred to as ‘excess’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.
After a seven-day delayed onset over Kerala coast on June 8, the monsoon covered the whole country on July 2, six days ahead of the normal date. However, withdrawal of monsoon over west Rajasthan commenced on September 25, a delay of eight days.
During the monsoon season, the country receives more than 75% of the annual rainfall, which plays a crucial role in boosting kharif or summer crops.
India’s foodgrain production rose by 5% on year to a new record of 330.5 million tone (MT) in the 2022-23 crop year. The target for 2023-24 is marginally higher at 332 MT.
Source:financialexpress.com